We Predict Super Mario Bros. Will Earn $1.5 Billion at the Box Office
The Super Mario Bros. Movie is a massive hit at the box office, becoming the highest-grossing movie of 2023, but how much money will it make in total?
The Super Mario Bros. Movie Has Amazing Box Office Legs So Far
The Super Mario Bros. Movie earned a massive $146.4 million in its opening weekend and saw impressively small drops of 36.9 percent in its second weekend and 35.1 percent in its second weekend, quickly propelling it to become the highest-grossing movie of 2023. Its $426 million domestic box office is already better than any movie released in 2022 or 2023 other than Top Gun: Maverick's $718.3 million or Avatar: The Way of Water's $683.6, surely inching past Black Panther: Wakanda Forever's $436.5 million by time of publishing.
Unfortunately, The Super Mario Bros. Movie's Wednesday release makes it hard to directly compare its opening weekend or day-to-day performance to other movies that releases on a Thursday night, it's undeniable that The Super Mario Bros. move is a big success and thanks to its impressive legs it should continue to be a big performer in the weeks to come. Whether it ultimately surpasses other big recent box office hits remains to be seen, but even if its box office run ended tomorrow it'd be at least the fourth highest-grossing post-pandemic movie behind Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick, and Spider-Man: No Way Home.
How The Super Mario Bros. Movie's Box Office Compares to Minions: The Rise of Gru
Illumination Entertainment movies have seen impressive success at the box office, particularly with Minions: The Rise of Gru in 2022, the highest-grossing Despicable Me (or Illumination Entertainment) movie yet. Minions: The Rise of Gru opened to $107 million and went on to earn $369.7 million domestically, giving it a multiplier (calculated by dividing total domestic box office by opening weekend) of 3.45. Internationally it earned $569.9 million (60 percent of its total worldwide gross) for a global total of $939.6
Minions: The Rise of Gru's 3.45 multiplier is better than the 3.13 average for 2022's top 10 movies, but its second-weekend drop of 56.9 percent and third-weekend drop of 41.8 percent were both significantly higher than The Super Mario Bros. Movie's. It already surpassed Minions: The Rise of Gru after a few weeks, but if we use its 3.45 multiplier as a baseline, we can assume The Super Mario Bros. Movie will easily pass $504.9 million domestically. The Super Mario Bros. Movie's box office is split almost exactly 50 percent between domestic and international box office, so a 3.45 multiplier minimum means it would easily clear $1 billion globally
Here's how The Super Mario Bros Movie Compares to Avatar: The Way of Water
The Super Mario Bros. Movie's $146.4 million opening weekend box office is over $12 million more than Avatar: The Way of Water's $134 million box office opening, and while Avatar: The Way of Water's 52.8 percent second-weekend drop isn't nearly as good as The Super Mario Bros. Movie's 36.9 percent, its third weekend box office actually increased by 6.4 percent, which is far better than The Super Mario Bros. Movie's 35.1 percent drop. Altogether, after its third weekend in theaters, Avatar: The Way of Water had earned $425.5 million, while The Super Mario Bros Movie stood at $436 million at the same point.
It's a big deal for The Super Mario Bros. Movie to outperform Avatar: The Way of Water domestically so far, but since the Avatar sequel's domestic box office only accounts for 30 percent of its total box office, and The Super Mario Bros. Movie's accounts for 50 percent, it doesn't have a shot to catch Avatar 2's $2.3 billion global total. If The Super Mario Bros. Movie continues its strong domestic performance and matches Avatar: The Way of Water's 5.09 multiplier, then it has a shot at $745 million domestically and $1.5 billion globally, passing Top Gun Maverick with a shot at entering the top-10 all-time box office rankings.
How Much Will The Super Mario Bros Movie Make at the Box Office?
The Super Mario Bros. Movie already easily surpassed the performance of Minions: The Rise of Gru, becoming the highest-grossing Illumination Entertainment movie yet, so it's well on its way to earning over $1 billion, but how much more remains to be seen. Its legs are currently keeping pace with Avatar: The Way of Water's domestic box office, but what set the Avatar sequel's box office apart was its performance after its fifth week. Until The Super Mario Bros Movie reaches that same point, it'll be hard to compare, but at its current pace, it could land somewhere around $745 million domestically and $1.5 billion at the global box office.
Regardless of The Super Mario Bros. Movie's ability to retain its strong box office legs in the coming weeks, particularly as stronger competition such as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 releases in theaters, it's already the biggest success of Illumination Entertainment's entire filmography and will be one of the highest grossing movies of 2023. Illumination Entertainment has seen huge success with the Despicable Me and Minions movies, so pairing with Nintendo and gaining access to some of the most popular characters in the world should be a recipe for continued box office success with The Super Mario Bros. Movie's inevitable sequels and spin-offs.
